What does the Old Farmer’s Almanac say about Ontario's 2026 fall forecast — and when we may feel 'hints of early fall'?

It might still be summer, but the almanac is looking toward fall — predicting above average rainfall and cooler-than-normal temperatures in southern Ontario.

While summer is in full swing in Ontario, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has its eyes on the fall weather forecast. The almanac has revealed its fall weather predictions, which are based on a 30-year statistical average from government meteorological agencies. Here’s what it’s predicting for Ontario and other parts of Canada for the upcoming season.

Above average precipitation for much of Canada The almanac encourages Canadians to “keep the rain gear handy,” with most of Canada expected to experience above-average precipitation this fall, with British Columbia being an exception. In southern Ontario, rainfall is predicted to be “well above average in the east,” and slightly above average in the west. Atlantic Canada, southern Quebec, the southern Prairies, the Yukon and the Northwest Territories will also each experience wetter-than-normal conditions.

A ‘milder fall overall’ in store While above-average rainfall is expected to be a part of the fall forecast, warmer-than-average temperatures are in the cards for much of Canada. However, in southern Ontario, September is expected to be cooler than normal, with temperatures returning close to normal in October. Atlantic Canada, southern Quebec, the southern Prairies, southern British Columbia, the Yukon and the Northwest Territories are expected to experience a warmer-than-normal September.

El Niño could lead to potential drought in North America Weather watchers are concerned that once El Niño takes hold later this summer, it could bring warm and dry conditions to parts of Canada, and could even lead to drought conditions through North America later this year. El Niño is a climate pattern that comes from the Pacific Ocean that could affect weather worldwide, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Ocean Service.

According to NOAA’s climate-prediction centre, there is a 62-per-cent chance that El Niño pops its head in during the summer months. “We see it coming, there’s no question it will be part of the fall and winter forecast,” said Weather Network meteorologist Doug Gillham in a previous interview. When it comes to the summer, however, Gillham doesn’t expect it to impact or dominate the influence on the summer.

What will August look like in southern Ontario? The Old Farmer’s Almanac released its August forecast, with the last month of summer expected to be both stormy and warm. Average temperatures are expected to be 1 C below average in the east and 1 C above average in the west, and rain is expected to be above average, with 70 millimetres above in the east and 20 mm in the west.

When it comes to an early autumn, Gillham doesn’t anticipate summer ending early, however, Ontarians shouldn’t expect relentless heat. “I think August will end up close to normal, Gillham said. “We’ll have some hints of early fall at times and we’ll still have some heat and hopefully we can keep the pattern of enough rain to avoid drought.”

Here’s what the Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for in August: - Aug. 1 to 9 Thunderstorms and warm conditions - Aug. 10 to 16 Sunny and cool in the east, warm in the west - Aug. 17 to 21 Isolated thunderstorms and warm - Aug. 22 to 26 Thunderstorms and warm - Aug. 27 to 31 Cool with thunderstorms in the east and sunny in the west — With files from Evelyn Harford and Janis Ramsay