JPMorgan Earnings Put Trading in Focus

Kalshi traders expect dealmaking and Basel III updates

This article first appeared on GuruFocus. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) investors are expected to focus on trading, dealmaking and capital rules when the bank reports second-quarter earnings Tuesday, according to prediction market platform Kalshi. Kalshi traders assigned an 84% probability that executives will discuss both trading and mergers and acquisitions during the earnings call.

Basel III capital rules followed at 83%, while credit cards ranked at 78%, geopolitical risks at 77%, hiring at 76%, private credit at 75% and share buybacks at 74%. JPMorgan is the largest U.S. bank by assets, with businesses spanning consumer banking, investment banking, trading, wealth management and payments. Its earnings often set the tone for the broader banking sector.

Markets also expect management to weigh in on the economy. Kalshi assigned a 66% chance that regulation will be discussed, followed by recession at 64% and inflation at 62%. The probability of rate-cut commentary rose to 46%, while additional rate hikes carried just a 31% chance.